ذخایر و درآمد ارزی ایران

گزارش فایننشیال تایمز خلاصه ای خواندنی درباره وضعیت ارزی ایران است. جمله زیر لب کلام مقاله است. سوال این است که آیا ذخیره ارزی مهمترین فاکتور تعیین کننده وضعیت اقتصادی ایران در این شرایط تحریمی است یا خیر؟

Iranian imports will be around $55-60bn this year versus exports of $55-60bn ($40bn oil, down from $110bn last year due to US sanctions). In addition, Iran has $100bn of fx reserves, around $70bn of which is available ($30bn stuck in banks overseas) and 900 tons of gold. On an economy of $480bn, we are not looking at economic collapse here given basic products will still come in at the appropriate rate and the subsidy reform program has now been halted, so basic essentials such as food staples, gasoline etc are still available at the same fixed Iranian rial price as before with rough equivalence in dollars coming in and out (although there will be more barter agreements in future, such as a wheat for oil agreement with the Indians being agreed right now). Iran has run a current account surplus for 13 years and has minimal debt, both local and foreign (< 7% of GDP).